Overall, the region is projected to gain 185,000 new jobs between 2012 and 2040 to reach a total employment forecast of 582,600. MRCOG forecasts are distributed into three distinct sector groups; Basic, Retail, and Services. Basic jobs include agriculture, mining, construction, manufacturing, transportation, communications, utilities, wholesale and military employment. Retail includes all retail trade including eating and drinking establishments. Services include finance, real estate, professional and technical jobs, management, administration, education, health care, social assistance, arts, entertainment, recreation, lodging, and government.
Overall distribution of employment based on these three groups is projected to remain similar to today, with a slight shift in distribution from retail to service jobs. Figure 4 shows the regional job distribution by sector group in 2012 and 2040.
While all sector groups are expected to grow over time, service jobs are expected to grow the fastest (61 percent), followed by basic (38 percent), then retail (15 percent). The shift towards a larger share of service jobs is led by growth in education and health-related jobs. Increases in basic employment are fueled primarily by the construction industry, which will continue to recuperate jobs lost during the recession and respond to the demands of new growth.